AGP Executive Report

US-Iran Talks Under Strain: The US says it carried out “self-defence” strikes in southern Iran, hitting missile sites and boats attempting to lay mines near Bandar Abbas, even as Trump claimed negotiations were “proceeding nicely” and Iran’s team met in Doha—fresh fire that risks turning a fragile ceasefire into a longer standoff. Nuclear Sticking Point: The biggest gap remains Iran’s nuclear file, with Trump pushing enriched uranium to be handed over or destroyed under supervision, while Iran warns a deal isn’t imminent. Strait of Hormuz Pressure: The Strait of Hormuz stays a central lever—any disruption threatens global fuel flows, and officials are still arguing over how it would be reopened. Sudan Food Fallout: Reuters reports Sudanese farmers fear higher fuel and fertilizer costs from the Iran war will cut summer planting of staples like sorghum and millet, deepening hunger in a country already dependent on Gulf inputs. Eid Cost Crunch: Egyptians are scaling back Eid al-Adha sheep slaughter as prices soar, while Bangladesh warns fake spices could spoil qurbani feasts.

Sudan War’s Food Shock: Farmers across Sudan warn that the Iran-linked jump in global fuel and fertiliser prices will cut summer planting, squeezing staples like sorghum and millet and raising the risk of hunger worsening beyond today’s crisis. Energy Grid Damage: A UNDP study puts Sudan’s electricity grid losses at up to $3bn since fighting began in 2023, pushing households, farms and clinics toward costly solar as diesel and supply chains tighten. Gold Rush Survival: In northern Sudan, small-scale miners say agriculture collapse and fuel costs are driving them into dangerous gold digging, with gold increasingly tied to conflict financing. Diplomacy Crosswinds: While Sudan’s own ceasefire talks keep circulating, US-Iran negotiations and Trump’s push to expand the Abraham Accords are adding fresh regional uncertainty that could ripple into Sudan’s already fragile food and fuel access. Eid Pressure Elsewhere: Separate from Sudan, livestock markets show how fast demand spikes can strain supply—an echo of the wider regional pressure Sudan is feeling now.

Sudan Ceasefire Push: Sudanese political and armed actors have proposed a renewable three-month truce, with local, regional and international monitoring and a joint military committee to track violations and accountability—an attempt to slow the war and reopen space for talks. Drone-on-Drone Claim: Sudan’s air force says it shot down a Bayraktar Akinci UAV near Ad-Damazin using another Akinci from its own fleet, escalating claims of cross-border drone activity tied to the UAE/RSF. Eid Livestock Pressure: In Sudan’s west, Darfur markets report strong sheep supply ahead of Eid al-Adha, but price gaps show how conflict and economics are reshaping access to food and livelihoods. Africa Day Context: Across the continent, Africa Liberation Day themes are turning toward governance and water sustainability—an echo of how conflict and weak services keep development out of reach. Regional Security Signals: Somaliland special forces reportedly returned from Israel training, underscoring how security partnerships are reshaping Horn of Africa diplomacy.

Sudan War Update: Sudan’s air force says it shot down a Turkey-made Bayraktar Akinci drone using another Akinci, after the target entered Sudanese airspace from Ethiopia near Ad-Damazin—Khartoum again accusing UAE-backed RSF support. Ceasefire Push: Sudanese political and armed groups meeting in Nairobi proposed a renewable three-month truce, monitored by local, regional and international bodies, with a joint military committee to track violations. Humanitarian Focus: Aid workers warn Sudan’s sexual-violence war is driving traumatic fistula cases—hundreds of women near the Chad-Sudan border are waiting for surgery. Food & Prices: Eid sheep markets in Darfur show “plenty” but sharp price gaps across regions, reflecting how war reshapes access and purchasing power. Regional Trade Shock: Russia’s wheat exports to Africa are surging, with Sudan among the biggest gainers—an external pressure point for Sudan’s food economy. Community & Culture: UAE officials attended Dubai’s Sudan Festival, highlighting Sudanese-UAE ties amid the war.

Sudan Ceasefire Push: Sudanese political and armed groups meeting in Nairobi have proposed a renewable three-month truce, with local, regional and international monitoring and a joint military committee to track violations and incidents. Regional Diplomacy: Egypt is cautiously rebuilding ties with post-Assad Syria, leaning on economic cooperation as it keeps distance from political Islam. War’s Human Cost in Sudan: Aid workers warn that Sudan’s conflict is driving traumatic fistulas linked to sexual violence, with women waiting for surgery on the Chad-Sudan border. Security Flash: Sudan’s army says it shot down a Bayraktar Akinci UAV that entered from Ethiopia, using its own Akinci and an air-to-air missile. Health & Industry: Italy and UNOPS launched a €4.5m project to expand dialysis services in Sudan, while Russia’s wheat exports to Egypt, Sudan and Kenya surged in early 2026.

Sudan War Update: The Sudanese Armed Forces say they shot down a Bayraktar Akinci drone—using a Sudanese Akinci and an air-to-air missile—after it entered Sudanese airspace from Ethiopia, with wreckage reportedly shared online. Humanitarian Cost: Aid workers warn Sudan’s war is driving traumatic fistulas from sexual violence, with women on the Chad-Sudan border waiting for surgery and cases described as “traumatic,” not obstetric. Health & Services: Italy and UNOPS have launched a €4.5m, three-year push to expand and rehabilitate dialysis in Sudan, targeting vulnerable groups including women, children, refugees and the displaced. Economy & Food: Russian wheat shipments to Africa are surging, with Sudan among the biggest jumpers, as global supply pressures ripple into local markets. Regional Signals: UAE-backed claims continue to swirl as investigators allege external support to RSF atrocities, while Turkey courts Libya’s rivals in joint military drills. Industry & Trade: Female fish traders at Uganda’s border report harassment, corruption and inconsistent rules that are squeezing livelihoods. Gold & Illicit Supply: A fresh look at gold flows highlights how uncertainty drives demand—and how illegal mining links can taint supply chains.

Sudan War Crimes Allegations: Even with a ceasefire in place, UN investigators and leaked reporting say the RSF has carried out mass executions, enforced starvation and widespread sexual violence—backed by the UAE, including claims of UAE-linked Colombian mercenaries operating drone systems from RSF command areas in Darfur. Regional Crossfire in Iraq: As a new Iraqi government takes over, reports of Israeli bases in western Iraq and militia drone attacks from Iraqi territory underline that Iraq remains deeply entangled in the US-Iran conflict. Ebola Emergency in Central Africa: WHO has declared the DRC and Uganda Ebola outbreak a public health emergency of international concern, with Bundibugyo driving the spread and officials warning containment will be hard without vaccines. Energy & Transit Pressure: Iran’s Strait of Hormuz control push is reshaping Gulf shipping and forcing corridor redesigns, while Türkiye doubles down on new oil, gas and electricity routes to reduce chokepoint risk. Sudan’s Human Cost: New accounts from Khartoum describe children born from rape during the war, showing how violence is echoing into the next generation.

Ebola Response Reality Check: The DRC Ebola outbreak is moving fast, but no vaccine is available for the Bundibugyo strain driving the deaths—officials say the best candidate could take 6–9 months to manufacture, while the immediate focus is treatment centers and case detection amid militia-linked access problems and funding cuts. Sudan Humanitarian Pressure: In parallel, Sudan’s war continues to generate new trauma and displacement, including reports of children born from rape during the conflict, underscoring how violence is reshaping the next generation. Red Sea Tensions: Ethiopia again accuses Egypt of blocking Red Sea access, keeping the Nile-and-maritime dispute simmering. Energy Corridors Push: Türkiye is pitching new oil, gas, and electricity routes to reduce reliance on chokepoints as instability grows. Regional Finance Moves: Kenya’s Nairobi Securities Exchange lists its first infrastructure fund to fund projects via tradable securities, aiming to cut reliance on costly external borrowing.

Sudan War & Humanitarian Fallout: A rights group says a drone strike killed 28 people at a market in Sudan’s West Kordofan, underscoring how fast violence is spreading beyond front lines. Ebola Response in the Region: Global health agencies are racing to contain a worsening Ebola outbreak in eastern DR Congo linked to the rarer Bundibugyo strain, with no approved vaccine or treatment yet and experimental options under review. Red Sea Power Struggle: Ethiopia accuses Egypt of obstructing its Red Sea access just after Egypt signed maritime cooperation with Eritrea—another reminder that ports and shipping routes are becoming political battlegrounds. Global Conflict Toll: The UN warns civilians are being killed at staggering rates worldwide, with Sudan named among the worst affected. Health & Trade Shock from Hormuz: WHO and UN-linked reporting highlights how disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz could ripple into food and medical supply crises.

Ebola response ramps up: As the Bundibugyo strain outbreak in eastern DRC worsens, WHO says there are no approved Bundibugyo vaccines or treatments yet, while global teams race to test experimental options and fast-track emergency use. US adds a new experimental tool: Reuters reports US HHS is working with San Diego biotech Mapp Biopharmaceutical to supply an investigational monoclonal antibody for people at high risk, with lab data suggesting possible activity against Bundibugyo. Hormuz pressure threatens food and fuel: UN/FAO warnings tie Strait of Hormuz disruption to a potential global food price shock within a year, starting with fertilizer and energy costs. Sudan conflict hits civilians again: A drone strike in West Kordofan’s Ghubaysh market killed 28 and left dozens wounded, underscoring how war keeps disrupting local supply lifelines. Regional diplomacy continues: Ethiopia accuses Egypt of obstructing its Red Sea access after Egypt’s maritime deals with Eritrea.

Sudan War Update: A drone strike hit a crowded market in Ghubaysh, West Kordofan, killing 28 people and leaving dozens wounded, as the conflict keeps tightening around civilian lifelines like food and supply hubs. Humanitarian Toll: The UN says civilian deaths in armed conflicts reached a grim pace in 2025—one killed every 14 minutes—while violations, sexual violence, and siege-driven hunger spread across multiple wars. Ebola Response: As an Ebola outbreak worsens in central Africa, the US is working with a small San Diego biotech to supply an experimental antibody for high-risk exposure, with WHO warning about the outbreak’s “scale and speed.” Regional Power Plays: Iran’s Hormuz control is deepening through island checkpoints and passage fees, while shipping firms in Dubai weigh relocating as routes and risks shift. Diplomacy & Industry: Türkiye hosted Sudan’s PM for talks on restoring normalcy and boosting cooperation, as Sudan’s war continues to disrupt recovery and investment.

Ebola emergency escalates: WHO says the Congo outbreak is moving fast, with “scale and speed” driving new alarm as suspected cases and deaths climb and scientists race to launch trials for Bundibugyo Ebola treatments and possible vaccine options in DRC and Uganda. Gaza care ramps up: A new international initiative will deliver advanced care for 1,000+ wounded Palestinian children, including paediatric amputees, as Gaza’s health system remains overwhelmed. Hormuz pressure grows: Strait of Hormuz transit traffic reportedly more than doubled amid Iran’s tightening control, while Iran also threatens fees over submarine internet cables—raising risks for both oil and digital supply lines. Sudan-linked logistics and recovery: Qatar Airways says it will expand Africa routes and start a new Port Sudan service in July, while Khartoum’s return-to-life remains uneven as some districts stay deserted and power shortages persist. Sudan hunger backdrop: UN-linked reporting continues to warn acute food insecurity is still gripping millions.

Ebola Emergency: WHO has declared the Congo outbreak a public health emergency, warning of “scale and speed” as deaths top 100 and suspected cases surge, with the rare Bundibugyo strain complicating response and delaying detection. U.S.-WHO Tension: The WHO says it’s not blaming the U.S., but Trump’s earlier pullout and unpaid dues have left global surveillance strained—now the U.S. is funding up to 50 treatment clinics in Congo and Uganda. Sudan Recovery Watch: In Khartoum, rubble is being cleared and some shops reopen, but displaced families are returning cautiously and electricity shortages still shape daily life. Gulf Pressure on Sudan’s Neighbors: Iran’s wider campaign is rattling UAE and regional security, while Gulf rivalry keeps reshaping alliances that indirectly affect Sudan’s wider environment. Food Stress Context: Hunger remains a major backdrop, with Sudan still facing acute food insecurity as prices keep climbing.

Ebola Emergency: WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus is alarmed by the “scale and speed” of a rare Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in eastern Congo, where authorities report at least 134 suspected deaths and 500+ suspected cases; the virus spread for weeks before being properly identified, and there are no approved vaccines or treatments for this strain. Sudan Economy: Sudan’s inflation jumped to 45.84% in April as the pound keeps sliding, with urban areas hitting 49.70% and rural 43.62%. Khartoum Recovery: In the capital, rubble is being cleared and some shops are reopening, but displaced families are returning cautiously and electricity shortages still darken many neighborhoods. Iraq Politics: Iraq formed a new government with a partial cabinet of 14 ministers, leaving key posts unresolved amid pressure over Iran-backed militia roles. Gulf Pressure on Infrastructure: Iran is threatening “protection fees” for Strait of Hormuz submarine internet cables, raising fears for critical digital infrastructure.

Ebola Emergency Escalates in Congo: The WHO has declared the DRC’s Bundibugyo-strain Ebola outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, with deaths now over 100 and cases reported in neighboring Uganda; officials say the alarm was raised weeks late because early tests missed the rarer strain, and limited local testing capacity and conflict-linked displacement are making containment harder. Sudan Inflation Hits New High: Sudan’s Central Bureau of Statistics reports annual inflation at 45.84% in April as the pound keeps weakening, with urban inflation jumping to 49.70% and rural to 43.62%. Sudan Connectivity Boost: Qatar Airways is adding a new Port Sudan route starting 2 July, plus more African frequencies. Regional Pressure on Trade Routes: Middle East tensions around Hormuz are also feeding fears of higher costs and medicine supply disruptions worldwide.

Sudan Economy: Sudan’s inflation jumped to 45.84% in April, up from 40.22% in March, as the pound keeps sliding and pushes up the cost of food, transport, fuel, and other essentials. Data Gaps: The Central Bureau of Statistics said insecurity in North Darfur (since Oct. 2025) blocked direct price collection, so April figures relied on estimated prices. Regional Shock: The wider crisis picture is getting worse as the WHO declared a Congo/DRC Ebola outbreak a public health emergency, raising fears of cross-border spread and straining already fragile health systems. Food Pressure: UN warnings continue that hunger in Sudan remains severe, with millions facing acute food insecurity as economic shocks ripple through markets.